Platform Accuracy
How often does each platform get it right? Based on 2,000+ resolved markets from 2022-2024.
| Rank | Platform | Overall | Politics | Crypto | Sports |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🥇 | Metaculus | 91.2% | 92.1% | 88.4% | 90.8% |
| 🥈 | Polymarket | 90.5% | 91.8% | 86.2% | 93.1% |
| 🥉 | Kalshi | 88.1% | 89.4% | 84.1% | 91.2% |
Key Findings
Polymarket Dominates Sports
+2.3%With 93.1% accuracy on sports markets, Polymarket outperforms competitors by 2.3%
Metaculus Excels Long-Term
6+ monthsFor markets resolving 6+ months out, Metaculus community predictions are most reliable
All Platforms Overestimate YES
3-5%Across all platforms, there's a 3-5% bias toward YES outcomes
Final 24 Hours Most Accurate
94%+Market probabilities converge to 94%+ accuracy in the last day before resolution
Data Collection
Analysis based on 2,000+ resolved markets from January 2022 through December 2024. Data sourced from Dune Analytics, Kaggle datasets, and direct API queries.
Accuracy Definition
A market is considered "accurate" if: (1) it showed probability above 50% and resolved YES, or (2) it showed probability below 50% and resolved NO. For multi-outcome markets, we use the highest probability outcome.
Calibration vs Accuracy
While this page shows binary accuracy (right/wrong), calibration measures whether 70% probabilities actually happen 70% of the time. See the Calibration page for that analysis.
Limitations
This analysis cannot account for markets that were close to 50% (genuine coin flips) or markets that resolved ambiguously. Sample sizes vary by platform and category.
Data Sources
- • Polymarket: Dune Analytics Dashboard
- • Kalshi: Kalshi Public API
- • Metaculus: Metaculus Track Record